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Sunday 13 February 2022 16:05, UK
Let our tipster Jones Knows take you into the Premier League weekend as he provides his insight, predictions and betting angles.
Say a little prayer for the Burnley defence. Liverpool are odds-on for good reason and have scored three goals on each of their last three successful visits to Turf Moor.
With no worthwhile angles available in the match-market odds, heading to the cards market is where the path to profit may lead.
With a routine victory on the cards for Liverpool we could see a scenario where the game is all-but over as a contest by 60 minutes. That has got me interested in the game producing a low card count. Liverpool games against lower-ranked teams are usually low-card affairs due to opposition teams unwilling or unable to make the game an open affair. In the last 22 fixtures against teams that finished the season or are currently in the bottom four, Liverpool’s games have averaged just 1.9 cards per 90 minutes.
Interestingly, eight of those fixtures produced no cards for both teams which is becoming a common theme in these type of fixtures as five of the last eight have seen the game end with the card count at zero, including the last two meetings between these two teams.
This one could go the same way with 12/1 available on the chances of no cards as Martin Atkinson is the man in the middle. The lenient official has shown one or less cards in six of his 14 Premier League games this season, including the last two.
Here we have two clubs that will argue changing a manager has seen their fortunes surge. Eddie Howe and Steven Gerrard both took charge of their teams for the first time on November 20 and if the season had started on that date, Aston Villa would be seventh and Newcastle would be joint-11th. Both are moving in the right direction and are hard to separate when assessing the match markets.
The draw is the biggest price of all three outcomes and that seems a sensible way to approach this from a betting perspective.
A draw on the road is due for Villa, too.
They have gone 15 away games without one (W6, L9). That may sound like a long run but it is nothing compared to the record draw-less runs. For example, home and away combined, the longest run without a draw in the Premier League is 32 by Spurs in the 18/19 season, while the last team – in the top four leagues of English football – to not draw over an entire season was Darwen FC in the Second Division all the way back in 1897!
Also, there have been 28 longer runs without an away draw in the Premier League than Villa’s current 15 – including two by Aston Villa (a run of 16 and 19). That does not put me off the draw here, though.
There will not be much in this encounter – there never is in a Wolves fixture. The only time in their last 17 Premier League games the margin of victory either way has been greater than one goal came in a 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.
Tottenham’s extra quality in forward areas should prove to be the difference, but Spurs will need to play with greater rhythm than they did against Southampton to find a way past a tough Wolves defence.
Sergio Reguilon is overpriced to score the first goal at 40/1 with Sky Bet. It is perhaps surprising that the attack-minded wing-back has only scored once since Antonio Conte took charge such is the licence to get forward he is given in Conte’s 3-5-2 system, especially given the fact he is averaging 4.38 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes.
The chances are falling his way too. His expected goals data of 0.25 goals per 90 – so he should be scoring every four matches – certainly stands him out as one of Tottenham’s biggest goal threats. He missed a glorious opportunity in the first half against Southampton yet the markets still have not really cottoned on to his chances of scoring. The 40/1 really is a wild price.
My eyes have flirted with the total match shots market in what is likely to be a game full of chances and attacking intent.
Leicester have faced 16.8 shots per game in the Premier League this season – the most in the division. They have also faced the most overall shots (348) despite only Burnley having played fewer games. Brendan Rodgers is not a manager to change his ways and shut up shop, so while he is still in charge, Leicester will remain a team that give away plenty of chances.
West Ham have also faced a lot of shots on their goal over the past month. The Hammers do defend deeper than most top-ranked teams, so opposition teams do find territory easy to come by. David Moyes’ men have faced a whopping 14.8 shots per 90 minutes in their last nine Premier League fixtures. If you collate both of those averages together you are looking at a total of around 30 shots, therefore with the game predicted to be of an ebbing and flowing nature, the chances of 28 or more match shots look worth a play.
1pt on: Southampton to win five or more corners and have 12 or more shots (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on: 50 or more booking points & Leeds to have 14 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
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